Weather Forecasting
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Dr. Martin Baxter's primary research interest lies in the improvement of weather forecasts, particularly with respect to heavy precipitation events. His research interests were developed as a graduate research assistant at Saint Louis University's Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems, and during a 6-year partnership with the National Weather Service (NWS). |
Forecast Methods
While at Saint Louis University, Baxter created a 30-year climatology of the snow-to-liquid ratio, as well as forecasting methods for using the climatology within the forecast process. Click here to view a depiction of climatological statistics, which are in use at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and NWS forecast offices nationwide.
Baxter's more recent research investigates the impact of thunderstorms (known as convection) on snowfall further north. In the midwestern United States, this scenario frequently occurs, and can lead to significant errors in snowfall forecasts. This research continues with a recent project that paired Baxter with NWS forecasters in Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Topeka, Kansas in an attempt to develop operationally efficient forecast methods that will better allow forecasters to investigate the role of convection in the atmosphere.
Forecasting Challenges
In order to keep abreast of forecasting challenges, Baxter frequently lectures at the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training in Boulder, Colorado. He has served as the lead instructor for the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction Course, a 3-week graduate level course for NWS Science and Operations Officers. He has also served as the lead instructor within the Meteorological Service of Canada. In addition, Baxter has given a number of lectures at NWS offices, including:
- Saint Louis, Missouri;
- Sioux Falls, South Dakota;
- Omaha, Nebraska;
- Grand Rapids, Michigan;
- and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland
Undergraduate Research Projects
Baxter has worked with two students on Undergraduate Research Projects. These projects involve the use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to simulate and/or forecast such features as squall line type thunderstorms and deep cyclogenesis. Currently, Baxter and his current (and former) students are working towards:
- Understanding how Lake Michigan can modify squall lines of severe storms, and how forecasts of such events can be improved
- Running the WRF model in real-time, and using the Model Evaluation Toolkit to verify the forecasts
- Developing a system for real-time potential vorticity inversion for use by operational forecasters
- Investigating the predictability of different types of weather phenomena
Get Involved
Baxter usually works with one or two students on these research projects per year. Only the most academically talented students can benefit from such an experience, especially those with a strong interest in the use of computer software to assist in the solution of these problems. Students would typically become involved in a project during the middle of their junior year (after Synoptic Meteorology I).
If you are interested in conducting undergraduate research, please contact Dr. Baxter.
